Try to estimate the probability youd turn on the radio and h

Try to estimate the probability you\'d turn on the radio and hear a song you were thinking about. In other words, estimate the probability of the combined event P(thinking of a song)P(turn on the radio and hear the song).

Take these factors into account:

The likelihood you\'d hear the song during a randomly selected time of day (think about how frequently the song plays, at what times of day, and on what stations).

The likelihood your radio will be tuned to a station that plays the song.

The likelihood you\'ll be thinking of the song at a randomly selected time of day. (Remember that if the song gets a lot of airplay it\'s more likely that you\'ll be thinking of it.)

If the combined events were to occur once, would the probability present compelling evidence that the event wasn\'t merely a chance occurrence? What if it happened twice in one day? Three times in one day?

Solution

The likelihood your radio will be tuned to a station that plays the song.