A military operation is planed with the outcomes being a com

A military operation is planed with the outcomes being a complete success (C), a substantial success (S) a partial success (P), and a failure (F). It is of course also possible to do nothing (D). The commander is faced with the following decision where the outcome is affected largely by weather. The weather is classified as very bad (V), bad (B), fair (F) and good (G).

The commander is indifferent between the following lotteries

What decision should he make and why

Solution

AS THE COURSE OF DECISION IS LARGELY DEPENDENT BY THE WEATHER SO THE ARMY SHOULD NOT DO ANYTHING WHEN THE WEATHER IS BAD OR VERY BAD. THAT MEANS OPT FOR D.

IN FAIR AND GOOD WEATHER ARMY SHOULD GO FOR COMPLETE SUCCESS WHICH MEANS OPTION C