You have recently been employed at the centre for disease co

You have recently been employed at the centre for disease control and prevention as Assitant Manager. The manager has asked you to assist in preparing a report on assisted reproductive technologies (ART). ART includes all fertility treatments in which both the egg and the sperm are used. According to data gathered from Central of Diseas Control Prevention, 0.7% of the ART cycles result in an ectopic pregnancy, 33.7% in clinical pregnancy and 65.6% results in no pregnancy.

You randomly selected 10ART cycles for special review report. None of the cycles resulted in clinical pregnancy. The manager feels that it is impossible to select 10ART cycles that did not result in a clinical pregnancy.

a) How would you determine if the manager\'s view is correct?

b) What probability distribution do you think best describes the situation? Why?

c) Write an explanation that answers the question, \"is iot possible to select at randomn 10 ART cycles that did not result in clinical pregnancy?\" Include in your explanation the appropriate probability distribution and your calculation of the probability of n o clinical pregnancies in 10ART cycles.

Solution

0.7% of the ART cycles result in an ectopic pregnancy, 33.7% in clinical pregnancy and 65.6% results in no pregnancy.

Prob for clinical pregnancy in any random person = 0.337

X - no of clinical preg. positive is binomial with n =10 and p =0.337

Prob (X=0 in a sample of 10)

= (1-0.337)¹⁰

= (0.663)¹⁰

=0.016411

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a) Manager view is not right as there is 1.6% chance for all 10 showing negative

b) Binomial

c) Practically it is not possible to select at randomn 10 ART cycles that did not result in clinical pregnancy because prob is 0.016411 less than 0.02.