Bayes Theory The proportion of people in a given community w

Bayes Theory- The proportion of people in a given community who have a certain disease is 0.005. A test is available to diagnose the disease. If a person has the disease, the probability that the test will produce a positive signal is 0.99. If a person does not have the disease, the probability that the test will produce a positive signal is 0.01. If a person tests positive, what is the probability that the person actually has the disease? Show work. Show variable definitions and the tree diagram completely filled in.

Solution

If a person tests positive then the probability that the person actually has the disease is 0.00495.