Bayes Theorem Analysis You are on a jury in a murder trial A

Bayes’ Theorem Analysis

You are on a jury in a murder trial. After a few days of testimony, your probability for the defendant being guilty is 80%. Then, at the end of the trial, the prosecution presents a new piece of evidence from the lab. The defendant’s blood type is found to match that of blood found at the scene of the crime, which could only be the blood of the murderer. The particular blood type occurs in 5% of the population. Compute the revised (posterior) probability that the defendant is guilty

Solution