Cookie Monster has a bag that contains three cookies and eac

Cookie Monster has a bag that contains three cookies and each cookie is different: one chocolate chip, one oatmeal raisin, and one sugar cookie. Cookie Monster reaches in a picks one cookie, and then Elmo does the same. Who has the better chance of ending up with the sugar cookie—Cookie Monster, who went first, or Elmo, who went second? Calculate the probability for each monster.

Solution

Probability of sugar cookie by cookie monster = 1/3

Probability of sugar cookie by elmo = 1/3*0/2 + 2/3*1/2 = 0+1/3 = 1/3

So both have equal chance of ending up with the sugar cookie.