Day Sales Day Sales 1 622 6 656 2 418 7 689 3 608 8 675 4 75

Day

Sales

Day

Sales

1

$622

6

$656

2

$418

7

$689

3

$608

8

$675

4

$752

9

$706

5

$588

10

$725

6 Consider the data given in for Nilgiris Convenience Store.

(a) If the store wants to use exponential smoothing to forecast the sales volume, what is the optimal value of a that would minimize MAPE? What is the forecast for day 11 using this model?

(b) If the store wants to use linear trend analysis to forecast the sales volume, what is the linear equation that best fits the data? What is the fore-cast for day 11 using this model?

(c) Which of the methods analyzed here and in Problem 11-15 would you use? Explain your answer.

Solution