Assume the financing gurus of a weekend investment televisio

Assume the financing gurus of a weekend investment television program predicted a 50% chance of XYZ stock gaining in January and a 50% chance of gaining in February. Your financial advisor sees this and tells you there is a 100% chance XYZ stock will gain over the 2-month period. Would you continue to use this financial advisor? Explain.

Solution

no i will not use this financial advisor becuase there as the investment program is pridicting of 50% chance for both the next month and my advisor is giving me an wrong information of investmen by saying that there is 100% chance.

0.50*0.50 = 0.250 is the total chance that it will gain for two months the real chance against the false given by the investor.