Homework SourseProblem 4a 5pts Which of the following statement is correct
| Problem 4a (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Which of the following statement is correct about Exponential Smoothing method? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | Smoothing constant ranges from -1 to +1. | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You can understand the cause-effect relationship using this method | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | All the previous values of historical data affect the forecast | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | This is a qualitative forecasting method | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4b (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Which of the following statement is correct about Regression method? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | R2 ranges from -1 to +1. | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You can understand the cause-effect relationship using this method | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | This is a qualitative forecasting method | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | Only the latest five data points are used to derive the equation | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4c (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| which of the following is an example of Anchor Bias? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | You working with extreme values while negotiating | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You are motivated to achieve a goal | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | You have a sense of control over an outcome that may be independent of your effort | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | You have a false sense of probability of an event from the ease of your recollection of similar event | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4d (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Forecasting can be very political. How would you work through a situation where your top management wants the forecast share increased by 10pts, and you know all the data do not support this increase? | |||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4a (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Which of the following statement is correct about Exponential Smoothing method? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | Smoothing constant ranges from -1 to +1. | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You can understand the cause-effect relationship using this method | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | All the previous values of historical data affect the forecast | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | This is a qualitative forecasting method | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4b (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Which of the following statement is correct about Regression method? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | R2 ranges from -1 to +1. | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You can understand the cause-effect relationship using this method | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | This is a qualitative forecasting method | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | Only the latest five data points are used to derive the equation | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4c (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| which of the following is an example of Anchor Bias? | |||||||||||||||||
| (a) | You working with extreme values while negotiating | ||||||||||||||||
| (b) | You are motivated to achieve a goal | ||||||||||||||||
| (c) | You have a sense of control over an outcome that may be independent of your effort | ||||||||||||||||
| (d) | You have a false sense of probability of an event from the ease of your recollection of similar event | ||||||||||||||||
| Problem 4d (5pts) | |||||||||||||||||
| Forecasting can be very political. How would you work through a situation where your top management wants the forecast share increased by 10pts, and you know all the data do not support this increase? | |||||||||||||||||
Solution
4a) Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. The value of the exponential smoothing constant varies from 0 to1
The the current smoothed value is an interpolation between the previous smoothed value and the current observation.
Thus we can say that All the previous values of historical data affect the forecast -option C
4b)In a relation, in which one variable is independent and the other is dependent, some people use the terms ‘cause’ and ‘effect’. In the production of rice for a given dosage of fertilizer, the amount of fertilizer is the ‘cause’ and ‘production of rice’ is the effect.
Thus in this regression relation, we can say that there is ‘cause’ and ‘effect’ relation between the variables.
R^2 varies fro 0 to1 .
It is a quantitative technique
Answer-option B
4c)Anchor Bias
Anchoring or focalism is a term used in psychology to describe the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or \"anchor,\" on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
ANSWER IS option D
4d)
The selection of a method depends on many factors—the context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of accuracy desirable, the time period to be forecast, the cost/ benefit (or value) of the forecast to the company, and the time available for making the analysis.
These factors must be weighed constantly, and on a variety of levels. In general, for example, the forecaster should choose a technique that makes the best use of available data.
So as a whole the right combination of the all the variable must be taken into account
