You are a highschool basketball coach and the final game of

You are a high-school basketball coach and the final game of the season is on the line. You must pick one of the following two players to make 3 free-throw attempts. Here are the current season

Solution

we compare their expected values

E(lauren) = 0 * 0.3 + 1 * 0.2 + 2 * 0.2 + 3 * 0.3 = 1.5

E(lisa) = 0 * 0.1 + 1 * 0.4 + 2 * 0.3 + 3 * 0.2 = 1.6

Expected value gives the expected number of shots players likely to convert

hence Lisa is most likely to give best result