You are planning an outdoor tailgate for the next game You h

You are planning an outdoor tailgate for the next game. You have been observing the amount of rain for the past month, and concluded that the probability of rain on any day is .05. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for the game day. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn\'t rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie\'s wedding, knowing the weatherman\'s forecast?

Solution

AS 90% OF TIMES THE WEATHER MAN IS CORRECT ON RAINY DAY

AND 10% TIMES WRONG WHEN IT DOESN\"T RAIN MEAN.

ON ANY DAY PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS 0.05

IF WEATHER MEN HAS SAID IT TO BE RAINY DAY THEN IT WILL RAIN WITH A PROBABILITY OF 0.9

SO THE PROBABILITY OF RAINING ON WEDDING DAY IS 0.05*0.9 = 0.045