15 To evaluate forecasting performance of a model or compare

15. To evaluate forecasting performance of a model or compare relative performance of two

models, examine

a. contingency forecasts

b. conditional forecasts

c. ex ante forecasts

d. ex post forecasts

e. all of these

16. Conditional forecasting occurs whenever we do not know with certainty the future

a. value of one (or more) independent variables

b. value of the dependent variable being forecast

c. equation fit from the estimation period data

d. model itself

e. any of these result in conditional forecasting

17. A lumber mill forecasts costs for 3 alternative market scenarios: high, low, and unchanged

prices. These are

a. contingency forecasts

b. conditional forecasts

c. ex ante forecasts

d. ex post forecasts

e. all of these

18. Which of the following does not involve a limited estimation period sample for fitting a

forecasting model?

a. annual airline profits of the deregulated industry

b. annual AT&T revenues after \"Ma Bell\" breakup

c. annual amount of aluminum cans recycled

d. annual sales of video camcorders

e. all of these involve limited sample size

Solution

15

Ex post forcast

16

Value of one (or more) independent variables

17

Contingency forecasts

18

All involve limited sample size