1 The probability that a randomly chosen driver will be invo

1. The probability that a randomly chosen driver will be involved in an accident in the next year is about 0.2. This is based on the proportion of millions of drivers who have accidents. Accident includes things like crumpling a fender in your own driveway, not just highway accidents.
What do you think is your own probability of being in an accident in the next year? This is a personal probability.

Step 1:
When asked, John said that his own probability of being in an accident is 0.1. Determine which one of the following statements is correct.

Step 2:
Which of the following statements may be reasons why John\'s own probability might be a more accurate prediction of his true chance of having an accident than the probability for a random driver?

1.John is aware of his driving capabilities.

2.John had only 1 accident in the past 10 years.

3.John\'s car is brand new and this model is known to be less involved in accidents.

4.John lives in a place with less than average traffic.

Enter the number(s) of the choice(s) you wish to select. Separate multiple selections with commas or semicolons. Your selections:____

Step 3:
Almost everyone says their personal probability is lower than the random driver probability. Which one of the following statements can explain this phenomenon?

Solution

The proportion 0.2 is obtained by a general ratio of number of accidents per year to number of drivers. So John\'s probability may be different from 0.2, which is the average probability.

1. C.John must be a better driver than the average driver.

This is because 0.2 is average, and John believes he drives better, that is with less accidents.

2. Answers:

1.John is aware of his driving capabilities.

2.John had only 1 accident in the past 10 years.

Answer: 1,2

3 is not right as we are not taking into picture the car models, but the focus is on drivers. Similarly, 4 talks about traffic, but that does not mean John drives only in his area.

3. A.People have a natural tendency to believe that they are better than average drivers.

The above is the prime reason why people underestimate their own probability of accidents.