The death rate for 75 year old people is 0089 per year What

The death rate for 75 year old people is 0.089 per year. What is the probability that an individual aged 75 will die during a 24 hour period? Suppose that 20,000 people, all aged 75, are given the flu vaccine at t = 0. What is the probability that none will die during the next 24 hours? Comment on how this affects health policy and people\'s concerns about vaccinations.

Solution

Death rate per year =0.089

Death rate per day = 2.4384x10^-4

Prob that an individual dies in 24 hour period = 2.4384x10^-4

b) n = 20000

X no of people dying per day is binomial with 20000 trials

Hence can be approxted to Poisson with average = 4.877

P(X=0)= 0.00762

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People will conclude that vaccination is good