After an unusually dry autumn a radio announcer is heard to

After an unusually dry autumn, a radio announcer is heard to say, \"Watch out! We\'ll pay for these sunny days later this winter.\" Explain what he is trying to say and comment on the validity of his reasoning.

a) the radio announcer is reffering to the \"law of large numbers\" assuming the events are independent, the weather is more likely to be bad in the winter because of a few sunny days in autumn.

b) the radio announcer is reffering to the \"law of averages\" assuming the events are independent, the weather is not more likely to be bad in the winter because of a few sunny days in autumn.

c) the radio announcer is reffering to the \"law of large numbers\" assuming the events are independent, the weather is not more likely to be bad in the winter because of a few sunny days in autumn.

d) b) the radio announcer is reffering to the \"law of averages\" assuming the events are independent, the weather is more likely to be bad in the winter because of a few sunny days in autumn.

Solution

Answer: b) the radio announcer is reffering to the \"law of averages\" assuming the events are independent, the weather is not more likely to be bad in the winter because of a few sunny days in autumn.