At a bazaar you can flip a fair coin until the first tail ap
At a bazaar you can flip a fair coin until the first tail appears. Your payoff is as follows:
If a tail appears on the first toss, you win $2
If a tail appears on the second toss, you win $4
If a tail appears on the third toss, you win $8
Compute the fair price to pay for this game is you will quit on the third toss, win or lose?
Solution
When we toss a coin then as we get one tail {T} the second toss can give {T,H} and similarly the third toss can give {T,H}
The sample space is {HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT} with probability being 1/8
The summation of the expectation is the fair price of the sample =$3
The quitting of the game depends on the cost of playing the game here it is not given ,so if there is a profit then we can play the game if there is a loss then we shoulf not play
| Coin | Probability | Value | Expectation |
| HHH | 1/8 | 0 | 0 |
| HHT | 1/8 | 8 | 1 |
| HTH | 1/8 | 4 | 1/2 |
| HTT | 1/8 | 4 | 1/2 |
| THH | 1/8 | 2 | 1/4 |
| THT | 1/8 | 2 | 1/4 |
| TTH | 1/8 | 2 | 1/4 |
| TTT | 1/8 | 2 | 1/4 |
