In December 1992 a small airplane crashed in a residential a

In December 1992, a small airplane crashed in a residential area near Bromma Airport outside Stockholm, Sweden. In an attempt to calm the residents, the airport manager claimed that they should now feel safer than before, since the probability of two crashes is much smaller than the probability of one crash and hence it has now become less likely that another crash will occur in the future.10 What do you think of his argument?

Solution

That argument is invalid.

The accidents are actually independent of each other, so, the probability of crashing does not depend on history.