Homework SourseIn a clinical trial let the probability of a successful outc
In a clinical trial, let the probability of a successful outcome have a prior distribution that is uniform over [0, 1]. Suppose that the first patient has a successful outcome. Find the Bayes estimate of that would be obtained for the squared error loss.
Solution
The Bayes estimator is the mean of the posterior
E(X) = [1 + 0 ]/ 2 = 1/2
E(X) = 1/2
Bayes estimate of = 1/2
![In a clinical trial, let the probability of a successful outcome have a prior distribution that is uniform over [0, 1]. Suppose that the first patient has a suc](/WebImages/27/in-a-clinical-trial-let-the-probability-of-a-successful-outc-1073337-1761562585-0.webp "In a clinical trial, let the probability of a successful outcome have a prior distribution that is uniform over [0, 1]. Suppose that the first patient has a suc")
