Suppose that you took a sample and derived that 16 20 is a

Suppose that you took a sample and derived that ( 1.6, 2.0 ) is a 95% confidence interval for . Later, you learn that = 1.8. What is the probability that is in your confidence interval?

1. 0

2. 1

3. .95

4. .5

Solution

OPTION 2: 1. [ANSWER, OPTION 2]

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You already know that u = 1.8. As 1.8 is inside the interval, you are now sure that u is inside the confidence interval. The probability of a sure event is 1.