hw426 A salesperson figures that the probability of her maki

hw4-26 A salesperson figures that the probability of her making a sale during the first contact with a client is 0.4 but improves to 0.6 on the second contact if the client did not buy during the first contact. Suppose this salesperson makes one and only one callback to any client. If she contacts a client, calculate the probabilities for the following events. (Enter your answers to two decimal places.)

(a) The client will buy

. (b) The client will not buy.

Solution

a)

P(buy) = P(buy on 1st call) + P(buy on 2nd call)

= P(buy on 1st call) + P(didn\'t buy on first) P(buy on 2nd call|didn\'t buy on 1st)

= 0.4 + (1-0.4)*0.6

= 0.76 [ANSWER]

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b)

P(not buy) = 1 - P(buy) = 1 - 0.76 = 0.24 [ANSWER]