suppose you toss a coin 100 times and get 83 heads and 17 ta

suppose you toss a coin 100 times and get
83 heads and 17 tails. based on these results, what is the probability that the next flip results in a head?

Solution

Historically, there are 83 heads out of 100.

Learning from history, the probability that the next is heads is

P(heads) = 83/100 or 0.83 [ANSWER]

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If you use +4 proportion in class, it would be

P(heads) = (83+2)/(100+4) = 0.817307692 [ANSWER]

if you don\'t use this in class, the answer is the first one above.