An ideologue is certain that his position is correct New evi

An ideologue is certain that his position is correct. New evidence is emerging that challenges this position. There is only a 10% chance of the position being correct if such evidence exists, but an 80% chance of the position being correct if the evidence doesn\'t exist. Now, after such evidence has emerged, if the ideologue is Bayesian, how should this new evidence impact his position – how certain to be correct (expressed as a posterior probability) is he now? A. 0 B. 0.8 C. 0.5 D. 1 E. 0.1

Solution

As stated in the problem,

\" There is only a 10% chance of the position being correct if such evidence exists\"

Thus, as the evidence exists (emerged), then the probability that he is correct is, as given

OPTION E: 0.1 [ANSWER]