21 Golfsmith a sporting goods company requires an eight quar

21. Golfsmith a sporting goods company requires an eight quarter sales forecast. From the revenue data below (also found in Doc Sharing under Exam 1 Data Problem 21) what is the appropriate exponential smoothing model to apply in order to develop the best quarterly forecast?

Date

Revenue

3/31/2006

74.810

6/30/2006

114.138

9/29/2006

93.980

12/29/2006

74.962

3/30/2007

77.663

6/29/2007

124.999

9/28/2007

106.527

12/31/2007

78.969

3/31/2008

79.236

6/30/2008

129.995

9/30/2008

101.702

12/31/2008

67.840

3/31/2009

68.793

6/30/2009

114.797

9/30/2009

90.586

12/31/2009

63.850

3/31/2010

67.649

6/30/2010

118.046

9/30/2010

93.272

12/31/2010

72.885

3/31/2011

81.515

6/30/2011

130.220

9/30/2011

100.997

12/30/2011

74.535

3/30/2012

90.456

(Points : 4)

A. Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt\'s)

B. Single Exponential Smoothing

C. 4 Period Moving Average

D. Winter\'s Exponential Smoothing

E. Linear Trend

Question 22. 22. Run the data with the exponential smoothing model that applies and obtain the best model by adjusting each of the coefficients. (Do not use Optimal ARIMA to find the smoothing coefficients. Make sure that you only use one decimal place for each coefficient – e.g. .1, or .2, or .3 …. through .9.) What coefficient values will result in the best exponential smoothing result and the lowest error? (Points : 4)

A. .9 level, .8 trend, .9 seasonal

B. .9 level, .5 trend

Date	Revenue
3/31/2006	74.810
6/30/2006	114.138
9/29/2006	93.980
12/29/2006	74.962
3/30/2007	77.663
6/29/2007	124.999
9/28/2007	106.527
12/31/2007	78.969
3/31/2008	79.236
6/30/2008	129.995
9/30/2008	101.702
12/31/2008	67.840
3/31/2009	68.793
6/30/2009	114.797
9/30/2009	90.586
12/31/2009	63.850
3/31/2010	67.649
6/30/2010	118.046
9/30/2010	93.272
12/31/2010	72.885
3/31/2011	81.515
6/30/2011	130.220
9/30/2011	100.997
12/30/2011	74.535
3/30/2012	90.456