Trump is running for nomination of Republicans Trump leads a

Trump is running for nomination of Republicans. Trump leads a large pack of contenders for the nomination. He has about 30% of the Republican vote, according to recent polls – a 10 percentage point lead over the next highest candidate, and far ahead of the rest. If he wins the Republican nomination Trump will then face, in a general election, the nominee of the main rival, the Democratic Party. Registered Republicans constitute for 25% of eligible voters. However, Trump is unpopular with some segments of his own party and it is estimated that 1 in 10 Republicans will simply not vote in the general election if he becomes the nominee (they would never vote for the likely Democratic nominee, Clinton). About 35% of eligible voters are registered with the Democrats. The remaining 40% of eligible voters are registered with neither party but traditionally, in general elections, vote about 2-to-1 in favor of the Republican candidate.

1) What percent of eligible voters currently support Trump?

2) Trump needs 50% of his party’s vote to win the nomination. Should Ronald Trump’s election team be optimistic or pessimistic about their candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination?

3) If Trump wins the nomination, should his election team be optimistic or pessimistic about his chances of winning the general election? (Assume that a popular vote of 50%+1 wins the election.) Give your best estimate of the proportion of the vote Trump will receive (show your work).

4) What proportion of Democrats would have to decide not to vote in the general election for Trump to win?

5) What are the major assumptions that lie behind your estimates above? What is most likely to cause your estimates to be incorrect?

Solution

1) What percent of eligible voters currently support Trump?

9/10 * 0.25 = 0.225

2) Trump needs 50% of his party’s vote to win the nomination. Should Ronald Trump’s election team be optimistic or pessimistic about their candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination?

no because trump will no have that percentage of voters