Consider the following time series data Using the naive meth

Consider the following time series data. Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. Mean absolute error. Mean squared emir. Mean absolute percentage error. What is the forecast for week 7 Refer to the time series data in exercise. Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. Mean absolute error. Mean squared emir. Mean absolute percentage error. What is the forecast for week 7??

Solution

              (1) Week value Forecast Forecast error Absolute value of Forecast error Squared Forecast error Percentage Error Absolute value of percentage error 1 18 2 13 18 -5 5 25 -38.4615385 38.46153846 3 16 13 3 3 9 18.75 18.75 4 11 16 -5 5 25 -45.4545455 45.45454545 5 17 11 6 6 36 35.29411765 35.29411765 6 14 17 -3 3 9 -21.4285714 21.42857143 Total 89 75 -4 22 104 -51.3005377 159.388773 a MAE 4.4 b MSE 20.8 c MAPE 31.87775 d Forecast of week 7 14               (2) Week value Forecast Forecast error Absolute value of Forecast error Squared Forecast error Percentage Error Absolute value of percentage error 1 18 2 13 18 -5 5 25 -38.4615385 38.46153846 3 16 15.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 3.125 3.125 4 11 15.67 -4.67 4.67 21.78 -42.42 42.42 5 17 14.5 2.5 2.5 6.25 14.71 14.71 6 14 15 -1 1 1 -7.14 7.14 Total 89 78.67 -7.67 13.67 54.28 -70.20 105.86 MAE 2.733333 MSE 10.85556 MAPE 21.1719 Forecast of week 7 14.83333