The question is in the last photo Example Shopping Mall Reno

The question is in the last photo

Example: Shopping Mall Renovation Activity A: Prepare initial design B: Identify new potential clients C: Develop prospectus for tenants A D: Prepare final design E: Obtain planning permission D F: Obtain finance from bank E G: Select contractor H: Construction I: Finalize tenant contracts J: Tenants move in IP 4 5 12 2 3 10 1 8 9 2 4 6 G, F 10 17 18 B, C, E 6 13 14 I, H 1 2 3

Solution

Z=(Expected time-Project time)/sqrt(variance of critical path)

Z= normisinv(Probability)

=normsinv(0.95)

= 1.644854

Project time= Time of completion of ADEFHG= 3+7+2+3+16+4=35

From 1st equation

1.644854=(Expected time- 35)/sqrt( 0.44+1.78+0.11+0.44+1.78+0.440)

Hence expected time= 38.67