WeekDemandWeek Demand Week Demand 6 73 70 2 7 79 12 3 70 8 1

WeekDemandWeek Demand Week Demand 6 73 70 2 7 79 12 3 70 8 13 70 4 68 76 72 72 73 Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations What is the mean square error for the forecast with = 0.2 as of week 15? Do not use week one in vour calculations >9 but 12 but 15 but

Solution

So 1.

So greater than 15 but less than 18

2.

For a = 0.6

So Mse is greater than 9 and less than 12

3.

So it is greater than 9, as it is 9.04

	a =	0.2
		Ft-1+a*(At-1-Ft-1)
Month	Actual Demand	Forecast	AD	SE
1	66	66.00	0.00	0.00
2	69	66.00	3.00	9.00
3	70	66.60	3.40	11.56
4	68	67.28	0.72	0.52
5	72	67.42	4.58	20.94
6	73	68.34	4.66	21.72
7	79	69.27	9.73	94.65
8	77	71.22	5.78	33.44
9	76	72.37	3.63	13.15
10	72	73.10	1.10	1.21
11	70	72.88	2.88	8.29
12	69	72.30	3.30	10.91
13	70	71.64	1.64	2.70
14	71	71.31	0.31	0.10
15	73	71.25	1.75	3.06
				16.52
				MSE