Problem 33 Given the follovwing history use a threequarter m

Problem 3-3 Given the follovwing history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note that the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar, 2nd quarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug Sep, and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Last year130 140 185 5 210 155 145 135 210 235 260 This year 13040 145 200 220 215 Forecast for the third quarter References Worksheet Difficulty: 3 Challenge Problem 33 Learning Objective: 03-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models

Solution

Actual demand of fourth quarter of last year = 210+235+250 = 695

Actual demand of first quarter of this year = 130+140+145 = 415

Actual demand of second quarter of this year = 200+220+215 = 635

3 quarter Moving Average Forecast for the third quarter = (695+415+635)/3 = 581.7