Suppose someone has run for office 4 times in the past and w

Suppose someone has run for office 4 times in the past and won. The first time they received 51% of the votes, the 2nd time 49%, the 3rd 48% and the 4th time 53% of the votes. This person is now running again for office but thinks that his opponent will get 4% more votes than him. He then conducts a survey from 100 people which says that 48 will vote for him and 52 will not.

What is the pmf of the Bayesian prior and posterior that represents those who will vote for him?

Solution

What is the pmf of the Bayesian prior and posterior that represents those who will vote for him?

prior :

1st time ---> 51%

2 time ---> 49%

3 time --> 48%

4th time --> 53%

posterior

P = 48 / 100 = 0.48