While monitoring the forecast values based on simple moving

While monitoring the forecast values based on simple moving average method (averaging period = 3), the tracking signals are consistently coming out as large positive numbers (i.e., 4.0, 6.2, and 5.5). What should we do to the forecast model?

Solution

Since average is continously increaing, the forecast model parameters are set in an environment that is having a biased nature. Hence the values are continously increasing. The parametric environments has to be modified to accomodate all kinds of environment. and then track the values and the output that are received. If still the same kind of output is received, then the values are to be taken as true and the forecast results could be recorded for further action