Wins 46 05PF 03PA e PF stands for average points a team

Wins = 4.6 + 0.5PF - 0.3PA + e

PF stands for average points a team scores per game over an entire season and PA stands for points allowed per game. Currently each team plays 16 games in a season.

A) How many more wins is a team expected to achieve in a season if they increase their scoring by an average of 3 points per game?

B) How many more wins is a team expected to achieve in a season if they decrease their points allowed by an average of 3 points per game?

C) Based on answers to A) and B), does it seem that a team should focus on offense or defense?

D) The Packers won 15 games and lost only 1. They averaged about 35 points scored per game, while giving an average of 22.44 points per game against them. What is the residual using this model?

Solution

A) If we assume that PA will be zero, if they increase their scoring by an average of 3 points per game, a team increases their expected number of wins by (0.5)*3 = 1.5

B)If we assume that PF will be zero, if they decrease their points allowed by an average of 3 points per game, a team increases their expected number of wins by (-0.3)*(-3) = 0.9

C) Assuming that it is equally much work to improve the offense by 3 points as it is to improve the defense by 3 points, it seems that the team should concentrate on improving their offense in order to increase their expected number of wins the most.

D) Wins = 4.6 + 0.5PF - 0.3PA

             = 4.6 +0.5*35 -0.3*22.44

             = 15.368

Since they won 15 games, their residual was

15-15.368 = -0.368