I need help forecasting the exchange rates for year 6 quarte

I need help forecasting the exchange rates for year 6 quarters 1,2,3, and 4. I have the data for year 4 quarter 1 all the way to year 5 quarter 4. Can someone please help me?

Quarter

X

Y = ( Exchange Rate)

Y4Q1

1

5.60

Y4Q2

2

6.32

Y4Q3

3

6.23

Y4Q4

4

6.03

Y5Q1

5

6.16

Y5Q2

6

5.68

Y5Q3

7

5.53

Y5Q4

8

5.63

Y6Q1

9

Y6Q2

10

Y6Q3

11

Y6Q4

12

Solution

To forecast the exchange rates for the 4 quarters of year 6 we can use a least square regression equation.

The regression equation is: y = a+bx, where y = exchange rate, x = quarter, a = intercept and b = x variable.

To find the regression equation, use excel. Go to \"data\" and then \"data analysis\". From the box select regression. The excel output will be:

Thus a = 6.179286 and b = -0.06262

Thus forecast for Y6Q1 (9th quarter) =  6.179286 - (0.06262*9) = 5.62. Similarly the forecast for 10th, 11th and 12th quarter can be found.