1 In your judgement what would be the most likely bestpossib

1-) In your judgement, what would be the most likely (best-possible, most rational) scenario to describe the final destination on Turkey’s long and arduous journey towards EU membership?

2-) Explain the steps of Policy Process (Policy Cycle) in the European Union and discuss the involvement of each EU institution in this Policy Cycle

Solution

1) There are possibly three future scenarios that could take place in this regard -

a) Competition: The evry first scenario that is being forseen is the growing competition and conflict between the EU and Turkey. In some time it is possible that even the supporters of Turkey like SPain, Italy in EU would loose hope in the negotiation process. And with the formidable rise of populism and the radical right notably in France, the nati turkey constituency at EU level would grow However it is most likely that the process of negotiation would be abondon by Turkey itself.The assets from the accession process owuld no longer be seen as politically feasible.

b) Cooperation : EU and Turkey could reach a new framework for cooperation based on respective complimentaries. Both sides would abondon the acession process yet would cooperate with each other at various grounds.

c) Convergence: The final scenario illustrates Turkeys convergence with EU through full membership. However this is th least that is forseen.

Among the all cooperation is the most rational one. This would present a number of gains for both parties. It would be in Turkey\'s national interets to to mainatin a multi vectored foreign policy which does not accord privileges to specific partner. The opponents of Turkey\'s full membership in EU would also like this alternative at best. The EU-Turkey custome unions would persist and be upgraded to services public procurement and possiblity to agriculture as what was suggested by World Bank. Cooperation on security matters would also deepen.