A man has decided never to go out in a lightning storm He re

A man has decided never to go out in a lightning storm. He reasons that there are two possibilities: he gets hit by lightning or he doesn\'t get hit; a 50-50 chance of being hit is just too risky. Do you agree? Comment on his mathematics.

Solution

He is correct in reasoning that he gets hit by lightning or not ie there are two possible outcomes but he has implied that there is a 50-50 chance of being hit from the fact that there are only two outcomes which is incorrect. In real life likelihood of being hit by lightning is much lower than 50%