Homework SoursePart 3 For this problem use the Sales 1 variable to answer f
Part 3: For this problem, use the Sales 1 variable to answer following questions
a. What are the forecast for June of year 2015 using Holt’s method with .
b. Use Solver to estimate the optimal value of smoothing constants (alpha and beta) that minimize MSE and evaluate the MSE based on the optimal value of .
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
d. Prepare a line graph compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants alpha and beta against the original data (sales 1).
Can you apply this forecasting method to the third variable, Sales 2 (Explain)?
Part 4: For this problem, use the Sales 2 variable to answer following questions
a. What are the forecasts for July of year 2015 using Seasonality without trend?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
b. What are the forecasts for July of year 2015 using Seasonality with trend?
Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method.
c. Prepare a line graph compare the predictions from this method with the optimal value of smoothing constants (alpha, beta, and gamma ) against the original data (sales 2).
d. Comment on the appropriateness of this forecasting method and which of the two do you believe?
| Monthly sales data | ||
| Month | Sales1 | Sales2 |
| Jan-11 | 1368 | 1024 |
| Feb-11 | 1380 | 928 |
| Mar-11 | 1406 | 1442 |
| Apr-11 | 1439 | 1371 |
| May-11 | 1474 | 1536 |
| Jun-11 | 1499 | 2004 |
| Jul-11 | 1528 | 1854 |
| Aug-11 | 1541 | 1951 |
| Sep-11 | 1570 | 1516 |
| Oct-11 | 1608 | 1642 |
| Nov-11 | 1632 | 1166 |
| Dec-11 | 1661 | 1106 |
| Jan-12 | 1701 | 1189 |
| Feb-12 | 1732 | 1209 |
| Mar-12 | 1758 | 1754 |
| Apr-12 | 1774 | 1843 |
| May-12 | 1808 | 1769 |
| Jun-12 | 1827 | 2207 |
| Jul-12 | 1844 | 2471 |
| Aug-12 | 1871 | 2288 |
| Sep-12 | 1898 | 1867 |
| Oct-12 | 1908 | 1980 |
| Nov-12 | 1934 | 1418 |
| Dec-12 | 1968 | 1333 |
| Jan-13 | 1986 | 1333 |
| Feb-13 | 2021 | 1370 |
| Mar-13 | 2056 | 2142 |
| Apr-13 | 2095 | 2138 |
| May-13 | 2122 | 2078 |
| Jun-13 | 2143 | 2960 |
| Jul-13 | 2168 | 2616 |
| Aug-13 | 2207 | 2861 |
| Sep-13 | 2226 | 2237 |
| Oct-13 | 2255 | 2225 |
| Nov-13 | 2283 | 1590 |
| Dec-13 | 2309 | 1659 |
| Jan-14 | 2338 | 1613 |
| Feb-14 | 2382 | 1605 |
| Mar-14 | 2400 | 2349 |
| Apr-14 | 2452 | 2468 |
| May-14 | 2486 | 2532 |
| Jun-14 | 2522 | 3127 |
| Jul-14 | 2547 | 3288 |
| Aug-14 | 2570 | 3285 |
| Sep-14 | 2611 | 2485 |
| Oct-14 | 2628 | 2723 |
| Nov-14 | 2662 | 1835 |
| Dec-14 | 2696 | 1894 |
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| Dec-15 |
Solution
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https://www.chegg.com/homework-help/questions-and-answers/monthly-sales-data-month-sales1-sales2-jan-11-1368-1024-feb-11-1380-928-mar-11-1406-1442-a-q10633979?adobe_reloaded=true
