oo ATT 1033 AM 0 9296 Exit Extra Credit The Newport Beach P

oo AT&T; 10:33 AM 0 9296 \" Exit Extra Credit: The Newport Beach Pier is designed for a wave height of 5 m above mean sea level. There is a 4% probability that this wave height will be exceeded in any given year. If the design wave height has not been exceeded for the past three years, what is the probabilit that it will be exceeded for the first time two years from now? O 0.098 O 0.18 O 0.078 O 0.068 O 0.088 O 0.048 0.058

Solution

Say, the year now is 2018. So, we have to calculate the probability of the wave exceeding the design wave height for the first time in 2020.

It consists of following three steps-

1. Calculate the probability of the wave not exceeding the design wave height in 2019

=1-(4/100) = 0.96

2. Now, calculate the probability of the wave exceeding the design wave height in 2020

= (4/100) = 0.04

3. To obtain the final answer multiply the results of the above two points i.e, 0.96 * 0.04 = 0.0384

So, the required probability is 0.0384