1 You are a doctor testing a bloodborn disease You know that

1. You are a doctor testing a blood-born disease. You know that in the overall population, 2 out of 100 people have the disease. All those with the disease positives are accurately detected 99% of the time. You also know that the test returns a positive result for 5 out of 100 people tested who do not have the disease. What is the probability that a patient will test positive?

2. You have called your cell phone provider to discuss a discrepancy on your billing statement. Your call was received and placed on hold to \"await the next available service representative\". You are told that the average waiting time is 6 minutes. You have been waiting on hold for 4 minutes. How many more minutes do you anticipate you will have to wait before you speak to a service representative?

Solution

1.

Let

P = positive
D = has disease

Hence,

P(P) = P(D) P(P|D) + P(D\') P(P|D\')

= (2/100)*0.99 + (1-2/100)*0.05

= 0.0688 [ANSWER]

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