Given the following expectations information on US Treasury
Given the following expectations information on U.S. Treasury instruments:
1-year note yield = 1.83% 5-year note yield = 2.79%
2-year note yield = 1.99% 6-year note yield = 3.04%
3-year note yield = 2.21% 7-year note yield = 3.58%
4-year note yield = 2.42% 8-year note yield = 4.18%
And non-changing premiums of 0, .11%, .22%, .39%, .52%, .64%, .75%, 88%, & .98%
e. Determine the expectations yield on a 5-year note purchased today.
f. Determine the yield on a 6-year Treasury note purchased today.
Solution
e. The expectation yield as per the pure expectation theory is:
((1+2 year yield)^2 *(1+3 years yeild)^3)^(1/5)-1
2 year-note yield + premium = 1.99% + 0.22% = 2.21%
3 year-note yield + premium = 2.21%+0.39% = 2.60%
Expectation of 5 year yield = ((1+0.221)^2*(1+0.026)^3)^(1/5)-1 = ((1.0221)^2*(1.026)^3)^(1/5)-1 = 2.44%
Expectation yield on a 5 year note purchased today = 2.44%
f. Yield on a 6 year note (not expectation) = 6 year note yiled + non- changing preium = 3.04%+0.75% = 3.79%
