You own a property that plan to put on the market for sale i

You own a property that plan to put on the market for sale in 2020 and believe that there is a 60% chance that the property will sell at the end of the that year. If the property will not sell at the end of 2020 you believe that you will be able to sell it at fair market price by the end of 2021. What are the chances it will sell in 2021?

Solution

Probability that the property will not sell in 2020 = 1- 0.6 = 0.4
Probability that the property will sell in 2021 = 0.4 * 0.6 = 0.24 = 24% Answer