Use graphical sensitivity analysis to determine which decisi

Use graphical sensitivity analysis to determine which decision to select if the probability of S1 is 45%

States of Nature

Decision

s1

s2

d1

8

10

d2

4

16

d3

10

0

d2

d3

d1

d1 or d2

d2 or d3

States of Nature

Solution

Lets calculate probability of S1 in each of the given options:

Thus, the closest option is to go with d1

Hope this helps. Ask if you have any doubts

Decision s1 s2 total Probability s1 s2
d1 8 10 18 d1 44% 56%
d2 4 16 20 d2 20% 80%
d3 10 0 10 d3 100% 0%
d1 or d2 32% 68%
d2 or d3 47% 53%
Use graphical sensitivity analysis to determine which decision to select if the probability of S1 is 45% States of Nature Decision s1 s2 d1 8 10 d2 4 16 d3 10 0

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