Homework SourseEX 23 USING PATIENT DAYS DATA FROM EXERCISE 22 PREDICT THE P
EX 2.3 USING PATIENT DAYS DATA FROM EXERCISE 2.2
PREDICT THE PATIENT DAYS FOR JANUARY, USING A FOUR-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE WITH WEIGHTS
0.1, 0.2, 0.3, AND 0.4
PREDICT THE PATIENT DAYS FOR JANUARY, USING A FIVE-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE WITH WEIGHTS
0.1, 0.2, 0.3, AND 0.4
Solution
FOUR-PERIOD :
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FIVE-PERIOD:
| Alpha | ||||||
| .10 | ||||||
| t | Data | Smoothed | Forecast | % error | ||
| 543.63 | * | |||||
| 1 | 536.0 | 542.86 | 543.6 | -1.4 | ||
| 2 | 539.8 | 542.55 | 542.9 | -0.6 | ||
| 3 | 544.0 | 542.70 | 542.6 | 0.3 | ||
| 4 | 547.0 | 543.13 | 542.7 | 0.8 | ||
| 5 | 549.0 | 543.71 | 543.1 | 1.1 | ||
| 6 | 546.0 | 543.94 | 543.7 | 0.4 | ||
| 7 | 544.8 | 544.02 | 543.9 | 0.2 | ||
| 8 | 542.8 | 543.90 | 544.0 | -0.2 | ||
| 9 | 537.5 | 543.26 | 543.9 | -1.2 | ||
| 543.3 | ||||||
| 19.05 | Mean Squared Error | |||||
| 0.7% | Mean Absolute Percent Error | |||||
| 55.6% | Percent Positive Errors | |||||
