Consider the following problem Given a three sided die with

Consider the following problem. Given a three sided die, with the numbers 1, 2 and 3, you know that the total value (of the top face of the die) after throwing the die 1000 times is 2000. Use the EL to solve that problem (find the probability that the next toss will be 1, 2 or 3). A second die is tossed 1000 times and has a total value of 2340. Solve for the optimal probabilities.

A) Which one is a more fare die. Explain

B) Draw the two solutions in a simplex (draw the simplex consisting of the three possible values 1, 2 and 3; draw the EL contours inside the simplex. Show the two solutions inside the simplex).

Solution