Variables EnteredRemoveda Model Variables Entered Variables

Variables Entered/Removed^a

Model

Variables Entered

Variables Removed

Method

1

unempl, gdp, rate, price, debt^b

.

Enter

a. Dependent Variable: budget

b. All requested variables entered.

Model Summary

Model

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

1

,602^a

,362

,229

2,23091

a. Predictors: (Constant), unempl, gdp, rate, price, debt

ANOVA^a

Model

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

F

Sig.

1

Regression

67,748

5

13,550

2,722

,044^b

Residual

119,447

24

4,977

Total

187,195

29

a. Dependent Variable: budget

b. Predictors: (Constant), unempl, gdp, rate, price, debt

Coefficients^a

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized Coefficients

t

Sig.

B

Std. Error

Beta

1

(Constant)

-5,920

5,350

-1,107

,279

gdp

-,028

,235

-,024

-,120

,906

rate

92,549

37,683

,587

2,456

,022

price

-,243

,106

-,558

-2,296

,031

debt

,053

,062

,218

,850

,404

unempl

-,685

,215

-,841

-3,183

,004

a. Dependent Variable: budget

H₀: ₁= … =_{5 =}0 against the alternative hypothesis   H₀:  at least some j is non zero.   Based on your test, do you think the model is useful for predictions of future Budget deficit? (. Hint: SPSS calculates this F-test for you as you do the regression. Look at the ANOVA table).

b. Test if unemployment have a significant effect on budget (i.e. test if ₅    significantly different from 0)Hint: check Coeffcient Table and look down to unemployment.

Residuals Statistics^a

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

N

Predicted Value

-5,8062

1,9907

-2,7533

1,52844

30

Residual

-3,34449

3,56034

,00000

2,02950

30

Std. Predicted Value

-1,997

3,104

,000

1,000

30

Std. Residual

-1,499

1,596

,000

,910

30

a. Dependent Variable: budget

Created Series

Series Name

Case Number of Non-Missing Values

N of Valid Cases

Creating Function

First

Last

1

Residu_1

2

31

30

LAGS(Residuals,1)

Variables Entered/Removeda
Model	Variables Entered	Variables Removed	Method
1	unempl, gdp, rate, price, debtb	.	Enter
a. Dependent Variable: budget
b. All requested variables entered.

Solution

ANOVA^a

Model

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

F

Sig.

1

Regression

67,748

5

13,550

2,722

,044^b

Residual

119,447

24

4,977

Total

187,195

29

a. Dependent Variable: budget

b. Predictors: (Constant), unempl, gdp, rate, price, debt

Coefficients^a

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized Coefficients

t

Sig.

B

Std. Error

Beta

1

(Constant)

-5,920

5,350

-1,107

,279

gdp

-,028

,235

-,024

-,120

,906

rate

92,549

37,683

,587

2,456

,022

price

-,243

,106

-,558

-2,296

,031

debt

,053

,062

,218

,850

,404

unempl

-,685

,215

-,841

-3,183

,004

a. Dependent Variable: budget

H₀: ₁= … =_{5 =}0 against the alternative hypothesis  

H₁:  at least some j is non zero.   

Based on your test, do you think the model is useful for predictions of future Budget deficit? (. Hint: SPSS calculates this F-test for you as you do the regression. Look at the ANOVA table).

Calculated F=2.722, P=0.044.

Calculated P =0.044 < 0.05 level of significance.

The null hypothesis is rejected.

We conclude that the model is useful for predictions of future Budget deficit.

b. Test if unemployment have a significant effect on budget (i.e. test if ₅    significantly different from 0)bHint: check Coeffcient Table and look down to unemployment.

Calculated t= -3.183, P=0.004.

Calculated P =0.004 < 0.05 level of significance.

The null hypothesis is rejected.

We conclude that the unemployment have a significant effect on budget.

ANOVAa
Model	Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
1	Regression	67,748	5	13,550	2,722	,044b
Residual	119,447	24	4,977
Total	187,195	29
a. Dependent Variable: budget
b. Predictors: (Constant), unempl, gdp, rate, price, debt