1 Compute a 4Quarter moving average forecast for Qtr 3 of Ye

.1). Compute a 4-Quarter moving average forecast for Qtr. 3 of Year 5 (round to the nearest unit)

2). Compute a 3-Quarter weighted moving average forecast for Quarter 3 of Year 5. Use these weights: 7 on the prior quarter, and then 4 and 1 (respectively) on quarters prior to that (rounded to the nearest unit).

3). Use exponential smoothing method with ? = 0.33 to forecast demand in Quarter 3 of Year 5. Assume Forecast for Q1 of Year 1= 24,850. Round off the final answer to nearest integer

4). Examine the 3 methods you used in the previous 3 problems. Which is best to use for this time series?

Solution

1) moving average is calculated by (SUM OF ALL OBSERVATION / TOTAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATION)

HERE OBSERVATION ARE = 19236+16778 / 2 = 18007

THEREFORE THE MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST FOR 3RD QUARTER OF 5 YEAR IS 18007