Q9 Suppose that using the simulation in Exercise 4 Connectio

Q9. Suppose that, using the simulation in Exercise 4 (Connections), you devise a patch configuration using stepping stones. In your first simulation run, you set the leave prairie probability to 0.9 and turn probability in non-prairie to zero. You run the simulation once, with no fires. The simulated butterfly population size after 100 weeks increases from 25 to 132. What does this result tell you about the real-world Fender\'s blue butterfly population?

Butterfly survival in this patch configuration is not particularly sensitive to the probability that butterflies leave their habitat.

As long as butterflies travel in a straight line when they leave their habitat, the population will never go extinct.

Numerous additional behavioral parameters must be incorporated into the simulation model in order to draw any conclusion.

A sensitivity analysis with this model requires multiple runs. One run is insufficient to say much about real-world butterflies.

Solution

From the result of simulation run only once, no conclusion can be drawn. This is because additional parameters are required and these should be included in the simulation model. Habitat restoration and species conservation should include additional behavioral parameters of Fender\'s blue butterfly population such as nectar resources for feeding of butterflies and plant population h osting the butterfly larvae etc. Therefore, the option 3 is correct.