From the scenario for Katrinas Candies assuming the absence

From the scenario for Katrina’s Candies, assuming the absence of quantitative data, determine the qualitative forecasting techniques that could be used within this scenario. Now, assume you have acquired some time series data that would enable you to make forecasts. Ascertain the quantitative technique that will provide you with the most accurate forecast. When deciding whether or not to outsource offshore, list the key factors aside from maximizing profits that managers should consider. Determine the key factors that you believe to be the most influential.

Solution

There are mainly 4 important methods for qualitative forecasting techniques

a) Jury of executive opinion:

Under this relevant opinions of experts are taken and they are systematically combined and averaged. This can be done either individual questionairre or a meeting with brainstorming ideas.

b) Opinion of sales person: Sales persons are the ones who directly have contacts with the consumers and they can collect the opinion of the consumers about quality improvement. Salesmen can thus assess the forecasting sales in the next period in their locality and based on the consolidation of these production can be planned.

c) Consumer expectations: Survey is done among the consumers by way of questions direct or opinions or questionairres to assess their intention to purchase the products and estimates can be done. This is useful only when limited market is there

d) Delphi method:

A panel of experts is given a situation and asked to make initial predictions, on the basis of a prescribed questionnaire, these experts develop written opinions. These responses are analyzed and summarized and submitted back to the panel for further considerations. All these responses are anonymous so that no member is influenced by others opinions. This process is repeated until a consensus is obtained.