104 In a Tmaze a rat is given food if it turns left and an e

104. In a T-maze, a rat is given food if it turns left and an electric shack if it turns right. On the first trial there a 50-50 chance that a rat will turn either way; then, if. receives food on the first trial, the probability is 0.68 that it will turn left on the next trial, and if it receives a shock on the first trial, the probability is 0.84 that it will turn left on the next trial. What is the probability that a rat will turn left on the second trial?

Solution

for the first trail the probability of rat recieving food and shock is same

so,

probability that rat will turn left on second trail

= 0.5 * 0.68 + 0.5 * 0.84

= 0.76